2/3/12, 4:10 PM JANUARY 2012 HIGHLIGHTS. January 2012 was a month with temperatures that were well above average, and with above average snowfall. In DeKalb, the average January temperature was 26.1 degrees, or a whopping 5.8 degrees warmer than the 20.3 degree, 30 year average. As for precipitation, January had near average rainfall equivalent. We had 1.41" of rainfall equivalent, with 1.47" being average. We also had 11.2" of snow, which was actually a little bit above average, surprising to some extent, given how mild a month it was. THE UPDATED WINTER 2011-2012 OUTLOOK. La Nina continues, but other things are driving our winter (or lack thereof) weather. The Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations have largely been positive. But finally, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) turned negative this week. Normally, that means that the flow of Arctic air in the northern regions of the hemisphere is allowed to dive southward into the 40-50N latitudes, unencumbered. But, there's been a wrinkle in this one: the North Atlantic Oscillation has remained positive. Frequently, when the AO goes negative, so does the NAO, and it indicates that cold air is crashing down into the northern U.S. without impunity. But as of now, the NAO remains positive. And what that means is this: the cold air, instead of flowing southbound into the U.S., has been dropping down across Europe and Asia, resulting in some bitterly cold temperatures there. Meanwhile, across the northern U.S., the cold air has been kept at bay. Alberta Lea, MN on Thursday, February 2nd broke a record high of 50 degrees...the old one being 48 degrees. And it stayed at 50 degrees for two hours! Meanwhile, 163 people are known to be dead in eastern Europe with the deep cold being experienced there. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/deadly-cold-snap-overwhelms-europe-strands-thousands-in-serbia-bosnia/2012/02/03/gIQAPOkumQ_blog.html The short to medium range models have been trying hard---but failing miserably and repeatedly---to bring down the Arctic air into the Midwest. The latest morning European run reversed it's course---again---and is now calling for an Arctic blast late next week. But we've ridden that bull before: the GFS and European have tried to bring down the cold air 7 to 10 days in advance, and each time, for the most part, the models have backed off some 5-6 days in advance of the threatened outbreak. While the European model certainly cannot be discounted, it is worth noting that, at this time, the cold-biased GFS is not showing that cold outbreak at this time, lending some credence that the European model COULD be out to lunch on this one. We'll know by Monday what the truth is. Finally, the forecast models continue to show a moderately strong La Nina to persist through March: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Because of the lack of snow cover, and the continuing wet weather south of us, I am revising my spring forecast with a *slight* bias towards warmer than average, as well as wetter than average. However, there's a ton of noise in the signal, and it must be stressed that forecast confidence right now is low. Here's the breakdown as I see it right now: Probability of Winter 2011 (December 1, 2011 - February 28, 2012) being: Warmer than average: 80% Average: 10% Colder than average: 10% Probability of Winter 2011 (December 1, 2011 - February 28, 2012) being: Wetter than average: 40% Average: 30% Drier than average: 30% Probability of Spring 2012 (March 1 - May 31) being: Warmer than average: 33% Average: 33% Colder than average: 33% Probability of Spring 2012 (March 1 - May 31) being: Wetter than average: 40% Average: 30% Drier than average: 30% ENERGY. Oil prices have been fluctuating between $96 and $100 per barrel over the last month. Today, it's just under $98/bbl for March crude. Supplies, of course, are tight. We see geopolitical upside for prices to spike for two significant reasons. First, Iran continues to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, which would obviously shut down a significant portion of the world's oil supply. Of even greater concern is the leaked news of a possible targeted Israeli air strike in Iran against it's nuclear development facilities. Whether either occur remains a question; however, Iran continues it's extreme rhetoric against Israel, and tensions continue to build. As a result of that and the current "Arab Spring" uprisings, the potential for price downside appears to be minimal, but upside potential is very high, but how high prices would go is almost impossible to tell. NIU Weather believes that Middle Eastern tensions will accelerate in the year to come, and those who are able to do so should brace for at least the potential of much higher oil and gas prices over the next year. NATURAL GAS. Natural gas prices were on a steady decline, currently trading at around $.25 per therm. The unexpectedly warm winter, and rapid deployment of fracking, the process used to extract natural gas from hard-to-get areas, has resulted in a high surplus of natural gas in this country. Prices dropped to almost $.23 per therm last month before they stabilized around a key support level of $.25. Once prices drop below $.25/therm, it becomes cheaper to generate electricity via natural gas, instead of nuclear power, coal and oil. The good news is that home heating bills are going to be substantially lower, and initial reports from consumers in January indicate that is exactly what has happened. Expect a flat price barring serious geopolitical concerns here in the U.S. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.J11.E&t=&a=&w=&v=d1 http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/contracts.html?r=NYMEX_NN http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYMEX_NG.V10.E&t=&a=&w=&v=dmax Click on that third link. That downward, almost free-falling, natural gas price curve is very telling, to say the least, about our economy and also due to the fracking process described above resulting in the discovery and workability of previously unreachable large natural gas fields, and the resulting major gas surpluses. However, as discussed last month, gas prices have now stabilized around $.25 per therm. Supplies remain well above the 5-year running average, and that trend should continue for the foreseeable future. The only way gas could start trending upward significantly is if oil becomes so expensive that firing up natural gas plants for electrical generation become more common. DISCLAIMER. Although NIU Weather strives for accuracy, forecasting of weather and energy is a science and results are not guaranteed. These forward-looking outlooks are for informational purposes only. Please stay up-to-date on the latest short and long-term forecasts from NIU Weather by going to our website at http://weather.admin.niu.edu, and check out our daily and weekend forecasts via web or email for the latest information. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. Complete information on the current long-term and extreme drought continuing in portions of the southern and western U.S. can be found at the following sites: http://www.drought.noaa.gov http://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/cliwatch/drought/moisture.htm http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html For DeKalb's historic climate information and a wireless version of the page, visit the NIU Geography Department climate page at: http://climate.niu.edu for the monthly climate information. A big thanks, as always, to the Geography department...and John Barmann, Raitis Bocka, Justin Clay, Doug Dziubla, Nick Gray, Brian Heartcell, Tim Herman, Kevin Kucharski, Rob Niesen, as well as Danny Brouillette, NIU student weather director. ******************************************************************************* Gilbert Sebenste ******** (My opinions only!) ****** Staff Meteorologist, Northern Illinois University **** E-mail: gilbert@niu.edu *** web: http://weather.admin.niu.edu ** Work phone: 815-753-5492 * *******************************************************************************